Development of a Dynamic Substance Stock Model
Making a dynamic substance stock model in order to conduct scenario analyses and make forecasts.
- Start date: September 2001
- End date: September 2005
- Contact: Ester van der Voet
- Commissioning institution: Vito, the Flemish Institute for Technological Research, contributes financially to this project
- Partners: the project is conducted in cooperation with Vito
Material and substance flow analysis so far has been limited mostly to accounting and static modelling. In order to conduct scenario analyses and make forecasts, a dynamic model is required. Such a model must include both flows and stocks of substances. During a 4 year PhD project, a dynamic SFA model is developed based on both economic and physical / chemical information. The future demand for substances is estimated based on past correlations between the demand for the products containing the substance, and socio-economic variables. The future generation of waste and emissions is calculated from mass balance combined with a life span estimate. Next to model development, case studies are conducted to test and refine the model. At present, the first results are available for the case of lead in the Netherlands.
- Elshkaki, A. (2007) Systems analysis of stock buffering : development of a dynamic substance flow-stock model for the identification and estimation of future resource, waste streams and emissions.190 p. Dissertation Leiden University. ISBN-13: 978-90-9022084-0.
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